Craps Pass Line Strategy
This is basic common sense, and the Pass Line rule forms the basis of true craps strategy. After all, the goal of any gambling game is to back the bets offering the best odds, which provides the highest expected return over the long run. But what about that Don’t Pass Line bet, which actually offers a slightly lower house edge rate of 1.36. If your best craps strategy is to continually practice the pass line bet and the max out the odds, then the house edge drops to just 0.374%. The playing table does not have a free place for the wager and gamblers should place it as they put the chips behind the pass line wager. You should position the bet after the establishment of the point.
Learn how to execute the 3 Point Molly craps strategy.
For every gambling game known to man, there are a dozen strategies bettors swear by. Once such method is called the Three Point Molly. It’s a craps strategy in which players are able to keep their wagers relatively low, while increasing their payout potential across half the place positions.
Many land-based and online casino craps players think of conservative bettors as those who make a pass line bet, back it with odds, and then do a couple of come bets with odds. Keeping the pass line and come bet as small as possible and the odds as high as possible will give the house a truly low edge over the multiple-bet conservative player. Craps can be an intimidating game for the beginner. The table seems to have about a hundred different kinds of bets, the players are barking out commands in what seems to be a foreign language, and the pace is too fast to ever ask a question. I can sympathize with the beginner, because at one point in time this was how craps appeared to me.
All craps strategies are designed for specific player types and bankroll sizes. The 3 Point Molly is for veteran players with experience in taking odds, and a budget-size bankroll equal to approximately 50x the table minimum.
How to Execute 3 Point Molly Craps Strategy
The idea behind this strategy is to start betting with the shooter on the come out roll, and continue placing Come bets, with max odds, until three points have been established. Once this goal is reached, you should have standard wagers, with max odds, on three numbers. At this point, you stop betting unless 1) you crap out (time to start over); or 2) one of the bets win (set another point with max odds).
That’s the short explanation of it, suitable only for true veterans of the game. If that wasn’t enough information to set you running off to the nearest craps table to try it out, here’s a longer, step-by-step interpretation of the 3-point betting system.
Step 1: Bet the Pass Line
Before the shooter’s come out roll, place one bet unit on the Pass Line. If the first roll is a 7 or 11, you win even money. Good job! Take the cash and place the bet again. If the roll is 2, 3 or 12, you lose. Boo! Give the shooter a dirty look, then place another Pass Line bet. If/When anything else is rolled…
Step 2: Bet Max Odds on the Point
This first rolled number (4, 5, 6, 8, 9, or 10) is the Point. Your Pass Line bet will stay where it is, and you’ll take maximum odds on the point by placing 3, 4 or 5 units just below your Pass Line wager.
Note: Maximum odds are 3x on 4 and 10, 4x on 5 and 9, and 5x on 6 and 8.
Step 3: Place a Come Bet
With your first Point set and wagered at max odds, it’s time to seek out a second point. Place one bet unit on the Come section. If next number to roll is a 4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10 (but not the original Point), your Come bet will move to this number in the Place position, becoming your second Point.
Step 4: Bet Max Odds on 2nd Point
Place the appropriate number of bet units (max odds for the Point) in the Come section and tell the dealer you’d like max odds on the number that just rolled. He’ll place your odds bet on top of your Come bet (now setting in the Place section), a bit to one side.
Step 5: Place Another Come Bet
Another bet unit should be placed in the Come section. The next number to roll (4, 5, 6, 8, 9 or 10) will become your third Point.
Step 6: Bet Max Odds on 3rd Point
See Step 4 – rinse, repeat.
Once Your Three Point Molly is set…
The image to the right shows an example of a perfectly executed 3 Point Molly craps strategy. The bettor has $5 on the Pass Line with 5x Odds ($25) on the point (6), a second bet ($5) with 3x odds ($15) on 4, and a third bet ($5) with 5x odds ($25) on 8.
If you make it this far without one of your points hitting, sit tight and don’t place any more bets. Watch those numbers roll, and hope one of your points hits. If it does, you make a nice chunk of change, then repeat Steps 5 and 6.
Keep doing this until eventually, the shooter will crap out with a 7. When this happens, all your bets are lost. This can really hurt if none of your points hit before the shooter rolls a 7. But your odds of winning will be as good as they can get, and you’ll have enough action on the table to keep the entertainment at a high tempo.
Learn about other craps betting systems and strategies:
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On the surface, Craps may look like a game where people are simply throwing a pair of dice across the table. However, there are odds, probabilities and house edges involved that dictate your chances of winning any given bet and therefore what strategies can be applied to the game. Here is a runthrough of Craps odds and strategy that you should bear in mind when playing.
Craps odds and probabilities
The best place to start in determining the odds involved in Craps is assessing the probability of getting any given number from a dice roll featuring two six-sided dice:
Craps probability
As you can see, the most likely dice roll is a seven, which will occur on six of the 36 possible combinations from the two dice. The next two most likely are six and eight followed by five and nine and so on, reducing in probability as you move further away from seven lower and higher respectively.
This means that on the come-out roll, a player has a 22.22% chance of rolling a natural (seven or 11), an 11.12% chance of crapping out (rolling two, three and 12) and a 66.66% chance of rolling a point number.
You will notice that the probability of rolling any individual point number is lower than that of rolling a seven. Here is the probability of the point numbers being rolled before a seven:
Craps point number probability
Point number | Probability of point number being rolled first | Probability of seven being rolled first |
4 | 33.34% | 66.66% |
5 | 40.00% | 60.00% |
6 | 45.45% | 54.55% |
8 | 45.45% | 54.55% |
9 | 40.00% | 60.00% |
10 | 33.34% | 66.66% |
Naturally, these percentages translate to the respective chances of winning Pass odds and Don’t pass odds bets. On a Pass odds bet, the odds will always be against you and on a Don’t pass odds bet, they will always be in your favour.
A combination of the two tables above can be used to calculate the overall approximate chances of winning any common Craps bets, as well as the house edge involved:
Craps pass line bet odds
Bet | Win probability | Lose probability | Push probability | House edge |
Pass line bet / Come bet | 49.29% | 50.71% | - | 1.41% |
Don't pass bet / Don't come bet | 47.93% | 49.29% | 2.78% | 1.36% |
This means that for every €100 bet on Pass line and Come bets, your expected approximate return is €98.59 and for Don’t pass and Don’t come bets, it is €98.64.
The probabilities of winning and associated house edges for several other Craps bets are as follows:
Multi-roll Craps bets probabilities and house edges
Single roll Craps bets probabilities and house edges
Craps strategy
Many Craps strategies thoroughly recommend predominantly focusing your bets on the common Craps bets that are often made in every round – Pass line, Come, Don’t pass, and Don’t come bets. These possess house edges (and therefore expected returns) which can only be bettered by Odds bets in the entire game.
Of these, Don’t pass and Don’t come bets are narrowly more favourable by virtue of possessing a house edge of 1.36% (whereas for Pass line and Come bets it is 1.41%), as well as a 50.71% approximate probability of winning or pushing your bet compared to 49.29% for Pass line and Come bets.
Should the round enter the point stage, it is always advisable to back up any one of these bets with Odds bets. Although the win probabilities may seem off-putting, as they pay at true odds they actually help to reduce the house edge, hence why at many casinos Odds bets have restrictive maximum limits. Odds bets reduce the house edge as follows:
Craps bets house edge
Odds bet maximum limit | Pass line bet | Don't pass bet |
No Odds bet | 1.41% | 1.36% |
1 x bet placed | 0.85% | 0.68% |
2 x bet placed | 0.61% | 0.48% |
3 x bet placed | 0.47% | 0.34% |
3 x bet placed on point of four/10 4 x bet placed on point of five/nine 5 x bet placed on point of six/eight | 0.37% | 0.27% |
5 x bet placed | 0.33% | 0.23% |
10 x bet placed | 0.18% | 0.12% |
20 x bet placed | 0.10% | 0.07% |
100 x bet placed | 0.02% | 0.01% |
Aside from the four main bets and Odds bets, the only other bet players should consistently look to make are Place bets on six or eight. While those seeking big wins may be unmoved by the 7:6 payout, these can prove useful if the point is any other number as they offer only a 1.52% house edge.
On top of this, Place bets on six or eight should always be made of instead of the comparable Big 6 or Big 8 bet, which offers a weaker payout for the same outcome and therefore has a considerably worse house edge of 9.09%.
Remember that for any individual dice throw, the chances of getting any specified number doesn’t change.
A common misconception is that a Field bet also presents greater value than any Place bet, as it covers more possible outcomes. However, a Field bet actually has a slightly worse win probability than a Place bet on six or eight of 44.45% and more importantly a higher house edge of 5.56%.
Indeed, virtually no single roll bets present any justifiable value and therefore they should merely be considered a bit of fun. The vast majority offer minimal win probabilities against large house edges of at least 10%. While they can provide substantial payouts on minimal bets, the law of probabilities dictates that they do not entail a secure method of boosting your winnings and will deplete your funds over a long period of time.
This illustrates the point that any Craps bet should be made with a comprehensive understanding of the house edges involved.
For instance, one popular Craps betting strategy is The Iron Cross, whereby a player places a Field bet and Place bets on five, six and eight to cover every possible outcome apart from a seven. Initially this seems an attractive prospect, particularly as it has an 83.34% win probability for any given roll.
Craps Pass Line Strategy
However, by virtue of the fact that it loses everything on a seven (the most likely individual outcome) and it is combining various different bets, it still has a house edge of 3.87% and will therefore diminish your expected returns by a greater extent than various other bets with lesser win probabilities.
Craps Pass Line Bet
Finally, under all circumstances avoid falling into the trap of reading into patterns that are not there. It is a common sight to see Craps players becoming excited by a shooter throwing a ‘hot streak’ of winning rolls and allowing this to influence their bets, such as deciding that because the shooter has not thrown a seven for 10 rolls, they are less likely to on their next roll.
Remember that for any individual dice throw the chances of getting any specified number doesn’t change. Irrespective of whether the shooter has thrown 10 straight sevens or none in their last 10 rolls, the probability of rolling a seven on the next throw is always 16.66%.
For this reason you should be wary of Craps betting strategies such as the Three Point Molly which are cited as capable of taking advantage of ‘hot streaks’. The odds and probabilities always operate independently of the shooter’s previous rolls, meaning ascribing too much significance to them can be a gateway to losing a large amount of money in a short space of time.
Learn more about Craps
If you’re looking for general advice on how to play Craps, then read our ultimate guide to Craps. If you want to learn more about Craps beyond how to play the game, you can read about the history of Craps.
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Craps Pass Line Strategy Template
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